Joel Embiid’s back is aching enough for him to watch the final games of the Kansas regular season from the bench. Syracuse’s Jerami Grant is in the same position. Xavier center Matt Stainbrook went down Monday looking like he’d suffered a major knee injury, and the Musketeers were relieved to learn there were no ligaments damaged. Michigan State point guard Keith Appling can’t do much with his aching right wrist, which makes it hard to, you know, play basketball.
This has become a college basketball season defined by the injuries suffered by significant players on significant teams. It’s become a little like the NFL that way.
Surviving short-term injuries, the whole “next-man-up” philosophy, is an integral part of competition in that league. If a team does not encounter such circ*mstance at some point, it is miraculously fortunate. If a team cannot handle it, there is a place reserved at the bottom of the standings. And that has become the case for so many teams in this college basketball season.
Here’s a look at how some prominent teams coped with long-term injuries, and how those might impact what we see in March.
ARIZONA
Injured player: PF Brandon Ashley
Status: Done for the season
Record with: 21-0
Record without: 6-2
Scoring average with: 74.3
Scoring average without: 73.5
For the purposes of this discussion, we are not being entirely technical. For instance, Ashley started the Wildcats’ game at California, but he was injured early in the game and his teammates had to complete it without him. Technically, Ashley appeared in the game — but the team was very much without him as it progressed.
In his absence, Arizona initially struggled to find an offensive structure that worked. Coach Sean Miller’s natural and obvious maneuver was to place talented freshman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson in Ashley’s place, moving classmate Aaron Gordon to power forward. As neither is an adept shooter, opponents chose to pack their frontcourt defenses tight in the lane. Putting shooter Gabe York in as a third guard and returning Hollis-Jefferson to a sixth-man role forced defenses to stretch to cover the perimeter and reinvigorated the Wildcats’ attack.
“We learned a lot in the Arizona State game,” Miller said following the Wildcats’ overwhelming road victory at Colorado. “From that game on, we have a more clear direction of what our team needs to be the best we can. I believe we still can get better. We haven’t had a lot of time without Brandon, and the more time we have the more sure of ourselves I think we become.”
COLORADO
Injured player: PG Spencer Dinwiddie
Status: Done for the season
Record with: 14-2
Record without: 6-7
Scoring average with: 77.6
Scoring average without: 67.8
Whereas Arizona has been able to recover at least some measure of the dominance it enjoyed early in the season, Colorado merely has attempted to regain a sense of equilibrium and a position of serious contention for an NCAA Tournament bid. That the Buffaloes have managed both is a credit to coach Tad Boyle and the resiliency of the players, but there’s no doubting a team that once loomed as a serious contender for the Sweet 16 now will be pleased merely to enter and take its best shot.
Dinwiddie was averaging 14.7 points and 3.8 assists for the Buffaloes when he blew out his ACL. He is a big playmaker, capable of flexing to multiple positions and defending taller opponents on the wing.
Without him, Colorado moved 6-2 junior Askia Booker to more of a playmaking situation, and he responded with 5.2 assists per game. In those games where CU can gain a lead, Booker is phenomenal at closing them out. He has missed only seven free throws in 43 attempts since taking over for Dinwiddie.
MICHIGAN
Injured player: C Mitch McGary
Status: Declared out for season
Record with: 4-4
Record without: 18-3
Scoring average with: 78.9
Scoring average without: 73.8
This is one of the true oddities: The Wolverines have been better without their most talented player than with him. Part of it was the uncertainty of how to incorporate McGary into the operation after he missed the season’s first two games with his back issues and to his relative part-time status in many of those appearances. That led to a bizarre stumble against Charlotte in Puerto Rico and an abysmal effort at Duke in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Since McGary was shut down following the team’s late fade in a home loss to Arizona, however, the Wolverines have become a relatively dominant team, clinching the outright Big Ten regular-season championship in their penultimate league game and sweeping rival Michigan State, which had been the clear conference favorite even with McGary presumed to be a part of the UM operation.
Oddly, if the Wolverines wanted to have the Big Ten present the case, they could argue for a better NCAA Tournament seed on the basis of the superior record without their star player. It’d sound a little nuts, but it wouldn’t be wrong.
MICHIGAN STATE
Injured player: PF Branden Dawson
Status: Returned in most recent game
Record with: 17-2
Record without: 5-5
Scoring average with: 77.0
Scoring average without: 74.7
Dawson’s injury was one of several that have damaged the Spartans’ promising season. The team’s top four players — Dawson, point guard Keith Appling, center Adreian Payne and shooting guard Gary Harris — all have missed multiple games with various ailments.
Dawson’s tore the heart out of the team’s campaign to win the Big Ten title, however, and also was the most easily avoidable. Dawson reportedly broke his hand slamming it on a table in frustration during a video session at the team’s complex when his performance was being critiqued. When he is playing well, Dawson brings a sense of toughness and athleticism that makes the Spartans more dangerous at both ends.
The foot injury that kept out Payne at midseason has not visibly impacted his performance since. The wrist issue currently endured by point guard Keith Appling has devastated his play; after missing three games he has decided to play through the pain but has been almost entirely ineffective. Appling has attempted only 12 shots and scored 14 points in four games since his return. He is 2-of-8 as a foul shooter. And the team’s defense has declined precipitously, with opponents routinely breaching the 45 percent shooting mark against MSU. Whether Dawson can help to resolve that as he becomes more integrated into the lineup is hard to say without knowing how Appling will fare.
OKLAHOMA STATE
Injured player: C Michael Cobbins
Status: Out for the season
Record with: 12-1
Record without: 8-9
Scoring average with: 86.8
Scoring average without: 75.9
Whether OK State truly is a sub-.500 team without Cobbins is debatable; remember, the Cowboys also went 0-3 when All-American guard Marcus Smart got himself suspended as the result of an altercation with a spectator at Texas Tech. There is no doubting, though, that his absence has demoted OK State from fringe national title contender to a team at first hoping merely to get into the NCAA field and now wishing that the bracket keeps the team away from dealing with too much size.
Cobbins was the team’s inside presence, an effective rebounder and excellent shot-blocker who, though lean himself, allowed OK State to stand up to more muscular opponents.
On Saturday, the Cowboys did handle KU’s Joel Embiid, although that involved his own injury issues. Embiid had to depart late in the game to be stretched. But since Smart’s return from suspension no opponent has scored more than 65 points. OK State is not blocking shots and not forcing turnovers, but also is not allowing anyone to get a clean 3-point look. The past four opponents are shooting 27.4 percent from long range.
PITT
Injured player: Wing Durand Johnson
Status: Declared out for season
Record with: 15-1
Record without: 7-7
Scoring average with: 71.1
Scoring average without: 66.6
Through three ACC games the Panthers were shredding the middle/bottom of the league with 77.7 points per game — and Johnson accounting for 9.3 points, including a 17-point outing in their Big Monday destruction of Maryland.
In his absence, the offense has too few weapons and no shooter other than star Lamar Patterson to stretch the defense. Johnson has not played since Jan. 11, when he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, and he still ranks second on the team in 3-pointers made. Guards James Robinson and Josh Newkirk have had another 14 games and still haven’t matched his 22 3-point goals.
The inability to run good offense has led to a deterioration of Pitt’s confidence in all areas, including defense. Monday, they stood by and watched N.C. State star T.J. Warren shred them for 41 points. It’s not beyond reason that Johnson’s injury could end up costing a team that once appeared to be fighting for a top-four seed entirely out of the tournament. The Panthers end their regular season Saturday at Clemson and then head to their first ACC Tournament. It would be wise to resume winning games soon.
SYRACUSE
Injured player: Wing Jerami Grant
Status: Day-to-day
Record with: 24-2
Record without: 1-2 (Grant missed the opener because of a reported academic issue, not because of injury)
Scoring average with: 68.7
Scoring average without: 58.3
Although Grant has been absent for only four games in total because of his current back issues, the reality is he barely was available for the two games prior to taking a seat and had very little impact on the game. So we’re counting those as absences.
Without Grant’s 11.8 points per game, the Orange simply don’t have enough weapons. It is far too easy for opposing defenses to load up on shooting guard Trevor Cooney. They don’t have to worry about Grant’s replacement, Michael Gbinijie, who has produced only one double-figure scoring game. They don’t have to worry about center Rakeem Christmas, primarily a defender and rebounder. Backup center Dajuan Coleman, who has potential as a post-scorer, also is lost for the year.
So as Grant sits, defenses attack Cooney, aware it’s hard for the Orange to produce serious scoring totals without his long-range production. He is 9-of-42 on 3-pointers while Grant has been bothered/missing with his injury. That’s 21.4 percent. He needs Grant healthy. The Orange need him healthy.
Since 2010, the Orange have seen brilliant stars wrecked routinely by a different brand of March madness. Center Arinze Onuaku injured his quadriceps at the 2010 Big East Tournament; the Orange still earned a No. 1 seed but lost to Butler in the Sweet 16. In 2012, as the NCAA Tournament was beginning, center Fab Melo was ruled ineligible to compete and the Orange fell in the NCAA Elite Eight.
It may not be a curse, but it’s a curious coincidence. Syracuse surely hopes the hex stops here.